Population Development and Sustainability

Finland’s population structure is undergoing profound change: the population is ageing, cultural diversity is increasing, and regional disparities are widening. These changes in population development have wide-ranging implications for the economic and social sustainability of society.

This page brings together research conducted within the DEMOGRAPHY programme that examines population development and economic and social sustainability. The research provides knowledge on population projections, solutions to the challenges of ageing, regional-level factors, and social sustainability.

The research findings offer up-to-date and reliable knowledge to support decision-making and to inform a wider audience interested in population development. They help improve the understanding of population change and its impacts, and support the planning of effective and sustainable solutions.

Publications

Alho, J. (2024). Pohdintaa Suomen väestöennusteen oletuksista poikkeusvuonna 2024. ETLA Muistioita 142.

Alho, J. & Valkonen, T. (2024). Suomen väestökehitys 2025–2070. Etla Muistio 148.

Alho, J. & Lassila, J. (2023). Assessing Components of Uncertainty in Demographic Forecasts with an Application to Fiscal Sustainability, Journal of Forecasting 42(7), 1560–1559.

Alho, J., Kangasharju, A., Lassila, J., & Valkonen, T. (2023). Maahanmuutto ja työvoiman riittävyys: Taloudellisten vaikutusten arviointia. ETLA Raportti No 132.

Gietel-Basten, S., Rotkirch, A., & Sobotka, T. (2022). Changing the perspective on low birth rates: Why simplistic solutions won’t work. BMJ, 379, e072670.

Jokela, M., Soini, E., Laakasuo, M., Parikka, S., Rotkirch, A., & Hämäläinen, H. (2025). Residential mobility and social capital: Regional analysis in Finland. Population, Space and Place, 31(1), e2857.

Jokela, M., Laakasuo, M., Parikka, S., Rotkirch, A., & Hämäläinen, H. (2024). Psychological and social wellbeing associated with regional population change in Finland. Journal of Community & Applied Social Psychology, 34(4), e2851.

Marois, G., Rotkirch, A., & Lutz, W. (2022). Future population ageing and productivity in Finland under different education and fertility scenarios. Finnish Yearbook of Population Research, 56, 137–160.

Myllyviita R., Saikkonen, P. & Vaalavuo, M. (2024). Sosiaalinen kestävyys hyvinvointivaltiossa: Kirjallisuuskatsaus. THL Työpaperi 64/2024.

Myrskylä, M., Hellstrand, J., Lappo, S., Lorenti, A., Nisén, J., Rao, Z., & Tikanmäki, H. (2025). Declining fertility, human capital investment, and economic sustainability. Demography, 62(2), 489–514.

Myrskylä, M., Hellstrand, J., Lappo, S., Lorenti, A., Nisén, J., Rao, Z., & Tikanmäki, H. (2024). Koulutukseen panostaminen tasaa matalan syntyvyyden vaikutusta – jopa ilman lisärahoitusta [Tietoa päätösten tueksi 5/2024]. FLUX-konsortio. Turun yliopisto.

Nevanto, M., Ilmarinen, K., & Kauppinen, T. M. (2024). Alueelliset erot väestön ikärakenteessa ja ikääntyneiden elinoloissa. Yhteiskuntapolitiikka, 89(1), 29-43.

Puonti, P. (2025). The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in an Aging Economy: Evidence from Finland.

Tarkiainen, L., & Martikainen, P. (2022). Long-term trends in urban-neighbourhood inequalities in cause-specific mortality and hospitalisation – multilevel analyses among individuals nested in Finnish post-code areas, 1991–2018. SSM – population health, 21, 101323.